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A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the source of the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

This is a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have piled up.

Per the data, twice all season has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

A reversion to average might be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to blasting the ball into the top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.